Like everything else, the pandemic has impacted technology trends in the past year, as many people have accelerated their adoption of devices that keep us healthy, connected and entertained, according to the Consumer Technology Association.
“The pandemic has pushed the fast-forward button on tech adoption –– from our homes to our work to our doctor’s offices,” said CTA President and CEO Gary Shapiro. “While the road to a full economic recovery is long and intertwined with a complex vaccine rollout, the tech industry’s ability to meet the moment during this crisis has been critical.”
The CTA, which owns and typically organizes the huge CES consumer technology trade show in Las Vegas early each year, claims that this year’s first-ever virtual CES, held Jan. 11-14, “made history as the largest digital tech event.”
Nearly 2,000 companies introduced new products and next-generation innovations (down from about 4,500 exhibitors at last year’s huge physical event). CES focused on several 2021 key tech trends, including digital health; robotics and drones; 5G connectivity; digital transformation; vehicle technology; and smart cities.
On the show’s first day, CTA unveiled its latest, twice-yearly trends outlook, titled “U.S. Consumer Technology One-Year Industry Forecast,” which reflects manufacturer shipments to the U.S. for more than 300 tech products, and related software and services.
While the group doesn’t delve into details related to materials and processes, it’s clear that the majority of products involved incorporate or rely heavily on plastic and polymer technology. That’s why I’ve asked Eric R. Larson, a mechanical engineer with extensive design, materials and manufacturing expertise, to share his insights into the likely impact of these product trends. Larson, a former DuPont application engineer, founded and runs the company Art of Mass Production in San Diego, and a website called www.plasticsguy.com.
On Jan. 11, two CTA officials –– Steve Koenig, VP of research, and Lesley Rorhbaugh, director of research –– provided the following brief summary of the latest trends.
Staying healthy
So-called “connected health” is a fast-growing category and was the focus of many CES product launches. More individuals are monitoring their vital signs for potential COVID-19 symptoms and are working to pro-actively manage chronic conditions from home using devices such as blood pressure monitors, smart thermometers, and pulse oximeters.
As a result, CTA projects that shipments of connected health monitoring devices will grow by 35% to 14 million devices in 2021, worth an estimated $845 million in revenue. It foresees the entire health and fitness technology category, including smartwatches and fitness activity trackers, increasing by 13% in 2021 to reach 69 million units and $9 billion in revenue.
Larson noted that the rise in popularity of such medical devices for home use has led to a shift in some of the plastics used to make them. In a hospital setting, most equipment is subject to disinfecting and/or sterilizing, using a variety of chemicals, some of which can be harsh to plastics. In home use, while devices are rarely sterilized, they are often subject to exposure to a different variety of chemicals, including soaps, hand lotions, sunscreens, bug sprays, cooking oils and the like –– all of which can contribute to cracking of polycarbonate and PC/ABS components. As a result, polyester resins are increasingly being used, either as an alloy or blend with PC (PC/PET, PC/PBT), or in a modified type of polyester known as a copolyester, such as Eastman’s Eastar and Tritan materials.
For the first time, the association included personal mobility options such as electric bikes in its forecast. E-bikes are soaring in popularity, as people remain wary of public transportation during the pandemic. In 2021, CTA projects, sales of electric bikes will jump by 60% to reach 1.6 million units, representing 44% higher revenue of $2.6 billion.
Larson points out that there are different grades of both bicycles and e-bikes, with consumer grade often using ABS resins, and professional grades relying on higher-end and more expensive materials such as glass-reinforced nylon. Non-demanding applications such as a battery shroud may be polypropylene, but for structural applications, ABS and nylon are preferred materials. The final choice typically depends on the expected level of exposure to oils, solvents and greases.
Staying connected
CTA sees smartphone shipments this year growing by 4% to 161 million units, earning $73 billion in revenue, following a year of slight declines. In particular, there is strong demand for smartphones equipped with 5G network capabilities. The group projects sales of such devices using this emerging technology, which is just broadly rolling out now, to jump 298% over last year, to more than 67 million units.
When it comes to smartphones, Larson notes, brand owners are using mostly metal and glass. The phone cases, however, tend to be durable polycarbonate, often overmolded with soft-touch thermoplastic elastomers. The challenge with TPEs, again, however, is that they may be susceptible to degradation from common household chemicals. Compounders continue to search for ways to retain the tactile feel while also providing good chemical resistance.
Silicone offers superb grip characteristics and excellent chemical resistance but requires entirely different types of molds and processing (liquid injection molding) than traditional injection molding, which means the end product really needs to be designed with LIM in mind from the start.
The pandemic, of course, led to unprecedented numbers of people working or studying from home. This led to record demand for laptop computers in 2020. CTA sees laptop shipments remaining strong in this year, rising 1% to 69 million units.
For laptops, Larson notes, as with smartphones, strong, lightweight metal is in favor. When plastics are used, they need to be suitable for very thin-wall, high-flow applications, which often translates into highly specialized PC/ABS blends.
Many people also are adopting wireless audio options, with total wireless headphone and earbud shipments in 2020 surpassing wired headphones and earbuds for the first time ever. Some with 91 million units are expected to ship in 2021, up 32%, representing 16% higher revenue of $9.3 billion. True wireless earbuds, such as Apple AirPods and Samsung Galaxy Buds, are driving this growth.
Headphones and earbuds, like wearables and medical devices, also must be lightweight, durable and resistant to bodily oils, which lends itself to polyester/PC alloys and blends, or copolyester resins.
DIY Smart Home Products:
Millions of Americans spending more time at home now, which is prompting an increase in the sale of do-it-yourself smart home products, with safety and convenience in mind. CTA predicts DIY smart home products –– think of products such as smart locks, programmable thermostats, security cameras, etc. –– shipments will rise 9% in 2021, to 99 million units, valued at $15 billion.
These products are typically located indoors, Larson said, and while they often are touch-activated, the exposure and duration of such contact is usually much less than that with the average wearable devices. So traditional engineering thermoplastics such as PC and PC/ABS are often used.
Staying entertained
The association notes that households channeled discretionary dollars into upgrading televisions in a strong year for shipments in 2020. CTA expects U.S. demand to decline slightly this year –– by 8% to 43 million units –– albeit from the second-highest volume on record. Growth areas for TVs in 2021 will include sets over 70 inches (up 6% to 3.3 million units) and 8K ultra high-definition TVs (up 300% to 1.7 million units).
Today’s TVs are getting bigger, thinner and lighter all the time, Larson notes. This again lends itself to thin-wall, high-flow resins such as PC or ABS for such components as the big, black back panels of so many of the current sets.
U.S. households are playing video games more than ever before, which translates into the sale of more gaming consoles, with both Microsoft and Sony rolling out much-anticipated next-gen game consoles. CTA sees combined home and portable console shipments rising 3% this year, to 18 million units, 16% more in revenue, or some $6 billion.
Finally, for gaming consoles and controllers, color often is key, Larson points out. These are largely toys and entertainment devices, and brand owners have the option of either painting the components or using molded-in color. Again, the durable PC/ABS blend is popular for both its durability and moldability.
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