This is the time of year when we are overwhelmed with articles trying to predict next year’s trends. Everyone wants to know what the “next big thing” is going to be. The truth is that trends don’t wait until New Year’s Day to start trending, they develop continuously throughout the year. That said, I’ll go ahead anyway and try to foretell some of the trends we will see in coatings for 2024.
Artificial Intelligence
There is a lot of discussion in the media centered on the effects of AI in aspects of daily life from education to job displacement. Much debate over how to regulate AI or it’s even possible, is in the news. The recent leadership shake up at Open AI (the developer of ChatGTP) illustrates the fast-moving world of AI today. The Chairperson was removed from the board, went to work at investor/competitor Microsoft, and was reinstated in only five days. After making my own outline for this article, I decided to consult ChatGPT about what might lie ahead for our industry.
Below in quotes is ChatGPT’s answer to my query about coatings trends for 2024, “What are the trends for 2024 for paint and coatings”. I couldn’t help editing one of ChatGPT’s awkward wordings which I clearly denoted.
“ChatGPT
I don’t have real-time data, and my knowledge was last updated in January 2022, so I cannot provide specific trends for 2024. However, as of my last update, I can mention some general trends in the paint and coatings industry that were gaining traction. It’s essential to check more recent sources for the latest information. Here are some potential trends:
- Sustainability: There has been a growing emphasis on environmentally friendly and sustainable products. Consumers and industries are increasingly looking for paints and coatings with lower VOC (volatile organic compound) content and Eco-friendly formulations.
- Smart Coatings: The integration of smart technologies in coatings, such as self-healing coatings, anti-microbial coatings, and coatings with enhanced durability, has been an emerging trend. These coatings offer additional functionalities beyond traditional protective and decorative purposes.
- Digitalization: The use of digital tools and technologies, such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), for visualizing and selecting paint colors has become more popular. Digital platforms that help users virtually test paint colors in their living spaces have gained traction.
- Customization: Consumers are increasingly looking for personalized and customizable paint options. This also alludes includes WK not only a wide range of color choices but also the ability to customize other features such as finishes and textures.
- Advanced Formulations: Ongoing research and development in the industry focus on creating coatings with improved performance characteristics, including better adhesion, resistance to harsh environments, and longer-lasting protection.
- Health and Safety: With a heightened awareness of health and safety, there has been an increased demand for coatings that are not only environmentally friendly but also safe for application in indoor spaces, with minimal impact on air quality.
- Bio-Based Materials: The use of bio-based raw materials in paint and coating formulations is on the rise. This includes bio-based solvents and resins, contributing to the overall sustainability of the products.
Keep in mind that the actual trends in 2024 might have evolved or new trends may have emerged. It’s advisable to consult more recent industry reports or speak with experts in the field for the latest information.”
Pretty close to the outline I wrote before consulting ChatGPT, but you’ll have to take my word for that. There are many possible uses for artificial intelligence in coatings including formulation development, performance testing, and application optimization. Dr. Erik Sapper at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo has been researching the use of AI in coatings and he feels it has its’ place but is not going to replace the formulator anytime soon. He thinks that “the general hype around these tools has leveled off” but they are a “great way to power through a lot of data”.
Environmental
Although the specifics change, environmental and safety concerns are always trending in the coatings industry. I see two important trending health, safety and environmental (HSE) topics for 2024. These are PFAS free coatings and biocide free coatings. Both of these topics pose health, safety and environmental concerns which need to be addressed by coatings manufacturers, end-users, and raw material suppliers. Finding suitable replacements for PFAS and biocides is difficult because of the unique performance properties they bring to coating formulations. The development and commercialization of non-hazardous replacements for both PFAS and biocides will be a trend in 2024 and beyond.
The detrimental health and environmental effects of some per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances commonly referred to as PFAS are becoming known at an accelerating rate recently. Their resistance to degradation makes them very persistent environmental contaminants. There are an estimated three to ten thousand compounds which can be considered members of the PFAS family, obviously only a part of these have been studied to determine if they have negative effects on human health or the environment. One trend on the horizon for 2024 is removing any PFAS compounds from your formulations regardless of whether or not they are harmful.
Biocides are essential components of the low VOC waterborne coatings which have greatly reduced our industry’s environmental impact. Solvent-borne and waterborne coatings formulated at higher VOC levels don’t readily support microbial growth. The shift to waterborne low VOC formulations has increased the global use of biocides to support product quality. There are limited commercially available solutions to solve the problems of microbial contamination as regulations become more restrictive. Possible routes to biocide-free coatings preservation include biological approaches, biocide containing polymers which prevent migration and sterile packaging. Each of these has drawbacks which must be addressed before biocides can be eliminated entirely.
Plant based Raw Materials
One trend that is just waiting for the right combination of factors coming together to have its’ moment is the widespread use of plant based raw materials. Regulations such as the European Green Deal might mandate the use of renewable ingredients in many products including paints, market forces will decide when critical mass is reached for this trend. While the term biobased is often used to describe renewable raw materials, focus group research has shown that consumers can better relate to the term plant based. These materials will really take off when the consumer demand drives market forces towards the adoption of these sustainability enabling ingredients.
Functional/Smart Coatings
There is no set definition of a “smart coating” but generally a coating that reacts to its environment in such a way as to increase its own durability or enhance protection of the substrate could be called a smart coating. Dr. Erik Sapper says that end users will “continue to seek out exotic coatings systems” which offer attributes beyond decoration and protection. There are countless ways coatings can be “smart” many of which we haven’t even conceived yet. Some examples include self-healing coatings which react to and repair damage, antimicrobial coatings which eliminate surface contamination, and color and/or phase change coatings which react to alterations in light and temperature.
Of course, there are no rules which limit any of these developing trends to a single purpose coating formulation. The possibilities are limitless, from a self-healing coating made from plant based raw materials to a biocide free architectural paint whose properties have been optimized through the use of an AI driven product development process. Trends can be thought of as ideas that are starting to catch on, so anyone’s next great idea could become the next big trend.
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